Financial Independence Calculator
The "25x rule" says that if you save 25 times your annual spending, you can theoretically live off 4% per year indefinitely without running out of money. This is the basis for FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) planning.
結果
￥1,250,000
FIRE number (FI goal)
- Monthly spending
- ￥4,166.67
How this was calculated
- 1Multiply annual spending by FIRE multiplier￥50,000 × 25 = ￥1,250,000
公式
FIRE number = Annual spending × Multiplier (default 25). Based on 4% withdrawal rule (1÷25 = 4%).
The 25x rule stems from research (Trinity Study) showing you can safely withdraw 4% annually from your portfolio for 25+ years with low risk of running out over 30+ years. This works well with moderate annual growth (7%) and diversification.
ステップ解説
- 1Calculate your current annual spending (fixed and variable costs).
- 2Determine your retirement spending (will it be less than now?).
- 3Multiply by 25 (or your adjusted multiplier for 4% withdrawal).
- 4This is your FIRE number — your goal for financial independence.
計算例
Current spending EUR 50,000/year
→ FIRE number = EUR 50,000 × 25 = EUR 1,250,000
Modest retirement EUR 30,000/year, 30x multiplier (3.3% rule)
→ FIRE number = EUR 30,000 × 30 = EUR 900,000
Luxury retirement EUR 100,000/year, 25x
→ FIRE number = EUR 100,000 × 25 = EUR 2,500,000
Reference table
| Multiplier | Withdrawal % | Risk level |
|---|---|---|
| 20x | 5.0% | High |
| 25x | 4.0% | Moderate |
| 30x | 3.3% | Low |
| 40x | 2.5% | Very low |
Higher multiplier = lower risk of running out of money but longer saving period.
よくある間違い
- Forgetting that this doesn't account for inflation — your need grows over years.
- Underestimating retirement spending — many people spend more than predicted, especially travel and hobbies.
- Ignoring portfolio risk — 25x assumption requires ~70% stocks, which can be volatile.
活用シーン
- Determine your retirement goal and track progress toward your FIRE number.
- Calculate different retirement scenarios with different spending levels.
- Plan saving behavior and investment strategy based on FIRE number and current wealth.
よくある質問
How accurate is the 25x rule?
The 25x rule is based on 30+ years of historical portfolio data, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results. It works well for moderate portfolios (60-70% stocks) but may fail for more aggressive or conservative strategies. Test your scenario with varying multipliers.
What if the market crashes in my first retirement year?
This is called "Sequence of Returns Risk" (SoRR). The first decade return is critical. However, many FIRE planners buffer this with: 1) higher multiplier (30x), 2) flexible spending, 3) bond ladder, 4) work optionality. Own research essential.
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